The USDA’s May 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects a global cotton production of 117.8 million bales for the 2024–25 season, marking a 3.08 million bale decrease from the previous year.
This decline is attributed to reduced outputs in key producing countries, including India and Pakistan, which offset gains in the United States and Brazil.
Despite the production dip, global cotton consumption is expected to rise by 1.2% to 118.08 million bales. This increase is driven by higher demand in Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Vietnam, collectively adding 1.4 million bales to global consumption. Conversely, China’s consumption is projected to decrease by 500,000 bales.
Global cotton trade is anticipated to grow by over 5%, reaching 44.83 million bales. The United States and Brazil are expected to lead this growth, each increasing exports by over 1 million bales.
In contrast, exports from Australia and Egypt are projected to decline.
Ending stocks are forecasted to remain stable at 78.38 million bales, reflecting a balance between production, consumption, and trade dynamics.
The USDA’s projections indicate a recovery in global cotton production for the 2025–26 season, with an expected increase of nearly 1.5%, supported by higher beginning stocks and improved production conditions.
