According to the 2025 World Trade Report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO), artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly transform the global economy—if enabling policies are adopted. The WTO estimates that AI could raise cross‑border trade flows by nearly 40% and lift global GDP by 12‑13% by the year 2040.
A key condition is closing the global digital divide. Low‑ and middle‑income economies could see income gains of around 15% and 14% respectively, if their digital infrastructure gap with high‑income nations is reduced by half. To reach this potential, the report recommends strong investment in digital infrastructure, skills development, and maintaining an open trade system.
The report warns, however, that AI‑related trade barriers are increasing: quantitative restrictions on AI‑related goods have jumped from approximately 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, and some low‑income countries still face very high bound tariffs—up to 45%—on key AI‑enabling products. These tariff and regulatory obstacles, the report suggests, could hamper access to AI technologies in many parts of the world.
Also highlighted is the importance of trade in enabling AI growth. AI‑enabling goods globally were valued at about US$2.3 trillion in 2023, and ensuring access to these goods will be crucial for productivity gains. The WTO calls for expanding participation in key trade agreements—such as the Information Technology Agreement—and updating service‑trade commitments in order to make AI more affordable and equitable.
WTO Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala emphasizes that with the “right mix” of trade, investment and complementary public policy, AI could open new growth opportunities across all economies. The report was published contemporaneously with the WTO Public Forum in September 2025.
