Brazil’s 2024–25 cotton harvest is gaining speed, with production now expected to reach 3.913 million tonnes, up 5.7 % from the previous season. As harvesting intensifies, sellers are pressing to clear old crop stocks amid weakening demand, both domestically and internationally.
June’s CEPEA/ESALQ Index, a key domestic price benchmark, fell 6.16 % over May to BRL 4.1456 per pound (~USD 0.76). This price dip reflects broader global downward pressure, driven by oversupply and sluggish commodity markets.
Export activity followed suit. Brazil shipped approximately 100,000 tons of cotton in June (across 14 business days), marking a steep 48 % drop from May and 37.7 % below June 2024 volumes. The daily export average fell 11 % year-on-year.
As of June 21, only 4 % of the planted area had been harvested. Despite this early-season lag, Brazil’s production forecast was slightly raised—from 3.905 Mt to 3.913 Mt—while planted area is estimated at 2.082 million ha, a 7.1 % increase year-on-year, though yields are expected to decline modestly (–1.2 %).
Globally, the USDA anticipates 2025/26 cotton production will be 25.472 Mt, down 0.7 % from May and 2.4 % lower than the current season. At the same time, global consumption is forecast at 25.638 Mt, slightly outpacing production and suggesting a tighter market balance.
In summary, while Brazil’s cotton output is advancing toward record levels, falling prices and export volumes reflect broader market headwinds. Producers face the challenge of managing expanding harvests amid soft demand and diminishing returns.
