In the 2024/25 season, estimates show that production should reach 25.
9 million tonnes, 7.38% higher than in 2023/24. Consumption is expected to increase but by a smaller percentage (2.
27%), reaching 25.5 million tonnes. Given escalating tariffs, regulatory pressures, and fiber market competition, consumption is expected to remain under pressure.
World trade is estimated to be about 9.9 million tonnes, which is very close to the previous season’s levels.
The cotton lint trade is under slight pressure due to tariff escalations between China and USA, with both being leaders and close bilateral trade partners in cotton. Any changes in trade policies between those two countries would have ripple effects all over the global cotton trade.
In 2018 and 2019, during the trade tension phase between US and China, China had diverted its trade basket away from the USA and towards Brazil and Australia for its cotton import needs; those countries are expected to gain the most if tariff escalations between US and China continue in 2025.
In the 2024/25 season, the USA has supplied comparatively more cotton to Pakistan and Vietnam than China.
