The ICAC’s 2025/26 season projections are holding steady as we begin June. Cotton production and consumption are projected to be around 26 million tonnes and 25.7 million tonnes, respectively, while trade is forecasted to rebound to 9.7 million tonnes.
Regarding production by region, we are posting upward revisions for Brazil, USA, and the West African region — but they are likely to be negated by a slight reduction from China in 2025/26.
After China’s exceptional yields of 2257 kg/ha — the highest levels ever recorded — the ICAC projects that China will produce about 6.3 million tonnes of cotton, which is slightly less than the current season but still the most in the world.
Consumption is expected to remain under pressure, given the upcoming tariff escalations, regulatory concerns, and fiber market competition. World cotton trade is projected to rebound by 2% to reach 9.
65 million tonnes due to increased stocks from the current season and projected mill demand, but trade deals and tariffs may have an impact on the cotton trade next season.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast for the 2024/25 season average A Index stands at 81 cents per pound. For 2025/26, the preliminary price forecast, based on current supply and demand estimates, ranges from 56 to 95 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 73 cents.
Price Projections are made by Ms. Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.
