The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer rose to 103.5 in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting increased momentum in global goods trade. This uptick is largely driven by a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes in key markets like the United States and the European Union.
Importers front-loaded shipments in early 2025 to avoid higher duties expected later in the year, particularly on steel, aluminum, and other industrial goods.
The increase was supported by strong performances across several trade-related indicators. Container shipping reached an index of 107.1, air freight rose to 104.3, automotive products hit 105.3, and electronic components climbed to 102.0. Raw materials also returned to trend with a reading of 100.
8. However, the new export orders index declined to 97.9, signaling weaker future demand and suggesting that the current growth may be short-lived.
The WTO emphasized that the current surge could be temporary, as early imports may lead to inventory overhangs and reduced trade activity in subsequent quarters. Additionally, the organization warned of growing trade policy uncertainty, especially surrounding the U.S.’s stance on tariffs and its relations with China, the UK, and the EU.
Despite the positive Q1 data, the WTO projects global merchandise trade to grow by just 0.1 percent in 2025. The outlook remains fragile, with the potential for further disruption if trade tensions escalate or economic uncertainty spreads globally.
