American farmers plan to sow more cotton this spring, yet the real test will be how much survives drought rather than how many acres go into the ground.
The USDA expects U.S. upland cotton acreage to reach 9.5m acres this spring, 4% above last year’s level. That marks a modest but meaningful recovery in planting intentions, helped by firmer prices. According to the National Cotton Council, growers had earlier indicated they would plant around 9m acres, broadly flat year-on-year, but cotton prices have since risen from roughly 69 cents to 74 cents a pound.
What is changing in the Cotton Belt?
The national increase masks a mixed regional picture. Arkansas is expected to cut cotton plantings by 10%, while Kansas may reduce acreage by 2%. Missouri is set for only a marginal 1% increase. Tennessee, by contrast, stands out with a projected 22% jump in plantings.
Why acreage alone does not settle the outlook
More planted area does not necessarily mean more cotton. The bigger variable is abandonment, especially in drought-prone regions such as Texas, which has an outsized influence on total U.S. production. If dry conditions persist across the Cotton Belt, a larger share of planted acres may never be harvested.
What comes next?
That leaves the market with a familiar tension. Higher prices are encouraging growers back into cotton, but weather still has the final say. For merchants, mills and brands, the headline acreage increase is encouraging, yet far from a guarantee of a larger crop.
