Page 75 - TEXtalks. August- September 2023

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World merchandise trade volume, 2019Q1-2023Q1
(Volume index 2015 = 100 and year-on-year percentage change)
115 30

Volume index, 2015=100
110 22.1 20
Volume index 2015=100 105 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -3.4 1.7 6.6 7.2 5.6 4.1 3.4 5.7 0.3 10 Year-on-year percentage change (%)

100
0

95 -4.1 -1.0 -10
-14.7

90 -20

85 -30
Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Year-on-year percentage change
Source: WTO and UNCTAD.

formulate responses to benefit the people they serve. COVID-19 pandemic. Trade growth in 2022 was
It provides useful insights for WTO members and all accompanied by real GDP growth at market
those involved in trade analysis. exchange rates of 3.0%, down from 5.9% in 2021.

World exports of intermediate goods (IGs) inputs China remained the top merchandise exporter in
used to produce a final product fell from a 9 percent 2022 but its share in world exports declined to 14%
year-on-year increase in quarter 1 of 2022 to a 10 (from 15% in 2021). The United States (8% of world
percent decline. In value terms, they remained stable trade) and Germany (7%) were ranked in second and
compared to 2021, amounting to US$ 9.7 trillion. third positions.
Weakness in the exchange of industrial inputs in
supply chains was largely due to a 0.3 percent A 2.7% increase in trade is consistent with WTO
decrease in exports of manufacturing supplies, forecasts issued after the start of the war in Ukraine
which represents more than 85 percent. but is better than some more pessimistic scenarios
considered at that time, which would have seen
In 2022, world merchandise trade growth slowed as growth as low as 0.5% if economies had split into
the war in Ukraine led to sharp rises in commodity competing trade blocs. Large-scale trade
prices. Trade growth is expected to be weaker in fragmentation has been avoided so far but remains a
2023 as high-interest rates continue to weigh on concern as geopolitical tensions rise.
economic activity.
Trade and output growth are expected to be subpar
The volume of world merchandise trade as in 2023, as stubbornly high inflation and tighter
measured by the average of exports and imports financial conditions weigh on consumption and
increased by 2.7% in 2022 after growing 9.4% in investment. The outlook remains clouded by
2021 as the global economy rebounded from the downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, food

August/September 2023