Page 8 - January-February-2019

08 09

News

Steady consumption, declining

production will draw down

cotton stocks: ICAC

World Cotton Supply and Demand
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Million Tons Chang/Month Million Tons Chang/Month Million Tons Chang/Month
Beginning Stock 20.31 -0.03 18.77 -0.04 18.51 -0.24
Production 23.08 0 26.72 -0.03 25.92 -0.24
Supply 43.38 -0.03 45.49 -0.07 44.44 -0.48
Consumption 24.5 0 26.88 0.07 26.8 0.1
Exports 8.19 0.01 9.09 0.1 9.34 -0.08
Ending Stocks 18.77 -0.04 18.51 -0.24 17.64 -0.58
• World ending stocks are projected to decrease by 5% to 17.6 million tonnes
• China’s production is expected to increase by 1%, bringing its total to 5.94 million tonnes,
replacing India as the world’s largest producer
• Global consumption projections remain at 26.8 million tonnes
• Prices are feeling some pressure due to concerns about overall economic growth but
should remain steady due to solid fundamentals

By the conclusion of the 2018/19 season, world stocks are projected to drop to 17.6 million
tonnes, reflecting a decrease of 5% from the prior year and registering the fourth straight
year of decline. Consumption is expected to remain steady but a 3% decline in global
production will draw down the world’s warehouses.
Production in China is expected to increase 1% to 5.94 million tonnes, and when combined
with a 7% decline in India’s production due to insufficient rainfall, the changes mean China
will regain the ‘top producer’ title it lost to India in the 2015/16 season.
Although cotton prices have come under pressure, current projections for global
consumption are unchanged at 26.8 million tonnes, with production projected to be slightly
lower at 25.9 million tonnes. In the opinion of the Secretariat, cotton prices are feeling the
effects of uncertainty related to the global economic environment, as opposed to the impact
of trade barriers. Price fundamentals still look solid, as reflected in the price forecast.

January/February 2019 January/February 2019