Page 23 - TEXtalks. November- December 2023

22
The global cotton balance

sheet witnesses a dynamic

dance of figures

The global cotton balance sheet witnesses a dynamic production is forecasted to be 540,000 bales lower
dance of figures amidst the 2023/24 U.S. cotton than in November. Reductions in the United States,
forecasts, unveiling reduced production and historic Turkey, and Mexico more than offset a 200,000
lows in mill use everywhere, including Pakistan. increase for Pakistan.

Drop and a surge in ending stocks reshape the World-ending stocks are forecasted to be 900,000
narrative, while Turkey and Bangladesh play pivotal bales higher. China’s projected stocks are up by 1.5
roles. Despite challenges, the market maintains million bales. The projected global stocks are 82.4
resilience, with trade adjustments and a notable shift million bales, accounting for 72% of use.
in the cotton landscape.
A tale of contrasts marks the current cotton season,
314,000 bales reduce U.S. cotton production to 12.8 where U.S. reductions meet global adjustments.
million. The decrease is mainly attributed to a China’s significant role in consumption and ending
significant 500,000-bale reduction in the Texas crop. stocks emerges as a defining factor, showcasing its
U.S. mill use is lowered by 150,000 bales, reaching growing influence in the cotton market. As the
1.9 million bales. This is expected to be the lowest industry adapts to shifts in production and trade
level since 1884, indicating a decline in spinning dynamics, resilience remains a key theme, laying the
activity. Ending stocks are projected to be 100,000 groundwork for an intriguing and transformative
bales, more down than in November, totaling 3.1 period in the global cotton trade. Meanwhile, in
million bales or 22 percent of disappearance. But the current trading, March Futures finished with solid
projected upland cotton season-average farm price gains in the United States. The U.S. production was
remains unchanged at 77 cents per pound. cut to 12.78 million bales, and that of world use was
cut to 113.73 million bales.
World cotton consumption is projected to be 1.6
million bales lower. The reduction is primarily The reduction of the U.S. crop should have made for
attributed to a 1.0-million-bale decrease in China’s a more bullish report; however, a surprise cut to
consumption. Turkey’s forecast is down by 400,000 overall world consumption added pressure to the
bales, the United States and Mexico are down, and cotton market. World use was cut from 1.57 million
Bangladesh is up by 100,000. Global cotton bales to 113.73 million bales.

November/December 2023