Global cotton production is forecast to grow by 23.1 million tons on a planted area of 30.4 million hectares in 2017/18. India’s cotton production is projected to rise by 2% to 5.9 million tons, as area expands by 7% to 11.2 million hectares. China’s cotton production may increase by 2% to 4.8 million tons, but will greatly depend on whether a subsidy is provided this year. While high cotton prices relative to competing crops is likely to lead to a large increase in planted area expected in the United States in 2017/18, production is forecast to rise by just 1% to 3.7 million tons. Assuming normal weather patterns, the harvested area is projected to expand by 3% to just under 4 million hectares. Pakistan’s cotton production is forecast to grow by 11% to 1.9 million tons. Its cotton area is projected to expand by 3% to 2.5 million hectares as high prices this season encourage farmers to plant, and the average yield may grow by 8% to 736 kg/ha as the crop recovers from pest pressure, according to ICAC.
After declining by 1% to 24 million tons in 2015/16, world cotton consumption is expected to remain stable in 2016/17. Given the strong demand this season and anticipated world economic growth in 2017 and 2018, world mill use is forecast to increase by 1% to 24.3 million tons. China’s consumption and share in the world total declined continuously from 2010/11 to 2015/16, when it reached 7.4 million tons. While its mill use is forecast to grow by 2% to 7.6 million tons in 2016/17 and by 1% to 7.7 million tons in 2017/18, its world share of cotton consumption is likely to remain at 30%. Mill use in India is projected to decline by 3% to 5.1 million tons in 2016/17, but is forecast to recover by 1% to 5.2 million tons in 2017/18. Consumption in Bangladesh continues to grow due to strong textile exports, with its mill use likely to rise by 5% to 1.5 million tons in 2017/18. Mill use in Vietnam has more than doubled in the last five years from around 500,000 tons in 2012/13 to an expected 1.2 million tons in 2017/18.
World trade is expected to expand by 3% to 8 million tons in 2017/18. China’s import volume is expected to rise by 11% to 1.1 million tons in 2017/18 as its mill use continues to outpace its production. Bangladesh’s imports are projected to rise by 3% to 1.5 million tons in 2017/18, while Vietnam’s imports are forecast to increase by 7% to 1.24 million tons. The United States is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter and its volume is forecast to rise by 5% to 2.9 million tons in 2017/18. Exports from India, the world’s second largest exporter, are projected to grow by 3% to 990,000 tons.
