Global trade expanded by roughly USD 300 billion during the first half of 2025, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report released on 8 July 2025. Growth picked up from an estimated 1.5% in Q1 to around 2% in Q2, buoyed largely by inflating, trade volumes rose just about 1%.
Services trade emerged as the primary engine, climbing approximately 9% year‑on‑year. Meanwhile, goods trade contributed less to the growth, reflecting softer demand across manufacturing and material-heavy industries.
Developed economies regained momentum, led by a robust 14% surge in US imports and a 6% increase in EU exports, a notable reversal of the prior trend favoring Global South regions. In contrast, developing countries’ imports declined by about 2%, with South‑South trade overall flat; intra‑Africa exports bucked the trend with a 5% increase.
Trade imbalances widened further: the US posted a record deficit while China and the EU saw rising surpluses. Bilateral deficits between the US and China, the EU, and Vietnam also expanded.
Looking ahead, UNCTAD warns of mounting risks: escalating US tariffs (10% baseline plus additional duties on steel/aluminium), geopolitical tensions, growing policy uncertainty, domestic subsidies, and strategic trade reconfigurations could fragment global trade and disrupt supply chains. Nevertheless, the report highlights resilience: freight indices have rebounded, regional integration is strengthening, and services trade remains healthy. However, maintaining momentum through H2 will depend heavily on political clarity, geoeconomic developments, and adaptive supply chain strategies.
