Global merchandise trade volume rose by 5.
3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, marking a stronger-than-expected rebound, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Compared to the previous quarter, trade volumes also increased by 3.6%. The primary driver of this surge was a sharp rise in North American imports, which jumped 13.4% quarter-on-quarter as businesses rushed to stock up on goods ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff increases.
While the strong start to the year offers optimism, the WTO cautioned that this growth may not be sustained throughout 2025. Rising inventories and the impact of new trade barriers, including tariffs, are expected to slow down trade activity in the coming quarters. As a result, the WTO revised its full-year trade forecast from a 0.2% decline to a modest 0.1% increase.
Regionally, Africa recorded a 5.1% increase in imports, followed by South and Central America and the Caribbean with a 3.
6% rise. The Middle East grew by 3.0%, Europe by 1.3%, and Asia by 1.1%. Export growth was uneven across sectors: office and telecom equipment led with a 16% year-on-year increase, followed by chemicals at 12% and clothing at 7%. However, exports of automotive products and fuels declined by 4% and 3%, respectively.
In summary, the first quarter of 2025 showed significant global trade momentum, largely powered by front-loaded imports in anticipation of policy changes. Yet, trade activity may face headwinds in the coming months due to excess inventories and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains.
