By 2035, volumes may barely move; the real contest will be over value, efficiency and market share.
Asia’s cotton-yarn market remains enormous but is settling into a low-growth future. A new IndexBox outlook projects market volume to reach 20m tonnes by 2035, with market value rising to $66.1bn—a slow grind, not a boom.
In 2024, consumption edged down 0.5% to 20m tonnes, while market value fell 5.9% to $62.9bn, reflecting weaker pricing rather than a collapse in physical demand. Production stayed broadly flat at 20m tonnes.
China, India and Pakistan dominate both consumption and output—together accounting for roughly three-quarters of the region’s totals. India stands out for stronger consumption growth over the past decade, while Uzbekistan is the fastest-expanding producer.
Trade flows tell a more revealing story. Imports fell to 2.7m tonnes ($7.4bn), with China absorbing the bulk. Exports rose slightly to 3.3m tonnes ($10.1bn), led by India and Vietnam—but export values have weakened as prices have drifted down.
In other words, Asia is making—and using—most of its yarn at home, while competition in traded yarn is tightening and becoming more price-sensitive.
With forecast volume CAGR of only +0.1% to 2035 (value +0.5%), winners will be those who shift the basis of competition: better energy productivity, higher-end counts and blends, faster lead times, and credibility on sustainability and traceability—because mere capacity will no longer be enough.
