Without adaptation, heat stress and flooding threaten jobs, productivity and the industry’s growth model.
The apparel industries of Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan and Bangladesh risk losing up to $65.8 billion in export earnings by 2030 if they fail to adapt to rising heat stress and intensified flooding, according to a new study by Global Labor Institute at Cornell University and the International Finance Corporation. That represents a 22% shortfall compared with a climate-adaptive growth scenario.
The longer-term outlook is more severe. By 2050, export earnings under a no-adaptation pathway could be nearly 69% lower than in an adaptive scenario, as repeated climate shocks compound slower growth. Employment losses would also deepen: across the four countries, the study estimates 8.64 million fewer apparel jobs by 2050 compared with a climate-resilient trajectory.
The analysis draws on inputs from the International Labour Organization’s Better Work programme, which notes that extreme weather is already disrupting production schedules, delaying shipments and undermining worker health. Heat waves reduce physical capacity on factory floors, while flooding damages machinery, raw materials and logistics—directly hitting output and incomes.
The warning matters because these four countries sit at the heart of global apparel supply chains, supplying value-conscious brands at scale. Climate stress therefore poses not only a social risk but also a competitiveness challenge, threatening delivery reliability and cost structures.
There is, however, a path forward. Governments in the region are beginning to introduce and enforce standards on workplace heat, ventilation, rest breaks and access to drinking water. Global brands are adopting voluntary frameworks to manage climate risks in their supply chains, while manufacturers are training workers to recognise and respond to heat stress.
The study’s core message is stark but practical: climate adaptation is no longer a peripheral sustainability issue. For South Asia’s garment exporters, it is an economic necessity—one that could decide whether the industry continues to create jobs and foreign exchange, or quietly shrinks under rising temperatures and water.
