European economic analysts foresee average tariffs on imports from the United States reaching approximately 18 percent by the end of 2025, according to the ifo Institute’s Economic Expert Survey (EES). Some EU member states, including France, Spain, and Portugal, expect rates as high as 20–25 percent, while others anticipate more moderate increases around 15–20 percent.
In contrast, experts outside the EU—including those from the UK, Norway, and Switzerland—predict lower tariff rates on U.
S. goods, in the 5–10 percent range. Meanwhile, U.S. experts expect tariffs on EU imports to rise to nearly 19 percent, although they recommend an optimal target closer to 3 percent.
This widespread anticipation of tariff hikes highlights growing concerns about protectionism and economic friction between transatlantic partners. According to the European Parliament and other trade observers, escalating tariffs could erode supply chains, reduce investment, and even shift consumer behavior away from U.S. products entirely—a dynamic driven not just by price, but by shifting preferences and trust issues.
Corporate leaders warn that higher tariffs may delay investment decisions, impact competitiveness, and disrupt existing global trade networks. The broader sentiment suggests that these policies could unintentionally fuel long-term realignment in trade flows and sourcing strategies beyond immediate tariff effects. With negotiations between the U.S. and EU scheduled to intensify over the coming months, all eyes are on whether these estimates materialize and how businesses and policymakers will respond.
