Global maritime trade is expected to slow markedly in 2025, growing by just 0.5 %, according to a new UNCTAD report. After an estimated 2.2 % expansion in 2024, the shipping sector is facing multiple headwinds—including shifting trade routes, volatile freight rates, and mounting operational costs.
The report points out that rerouted lanes, port disruptions, and longer sea journeys are reshaping maritime logistics. For example, vessels are increasingly avoiding traditional chokepoints, such as the Red Sea, opting for longer but more secure routes. This has led to record increases in ton-miles, meaning ships travel farther even for the same trade volume.
Freight rates remain volatile, especially in container shipping, where spot and charter prices have spiked above pre‑pandemic levels. The pressure is most acute in developing countries, which are more vulnerable to rising costs. Meanwhile, emissions from global shipping rose by 5 % in 2024, highlighting the environmental urgency in the sector.
UNCTAD calls for decisive action: green investment, regulatory clarity, fleet renewal, and digital transformation. The push toward cleaner fuels and net‑zero shipping will require coordination across governments, the maritime industry, and financing institutions. In particular, efforts must ensure that smaller and less developed economies can adapt without being left behind.
“The transitions ahead — to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes — must be just transitions,” said the UNCTAD secretary-general. The report stresses that without inclusive policies, cost burdens could disproportionately hit poorer nations. The path forward hinges on resilience, innovation, and cooperation in the face of global trade uncertainty.
