U.S. cotton growers plan to plant 9.0m acres in 2026, down 3.2% from 2025, according to the National Cotton Council’s early-season intentions survey. Upland accounts for 8.8m acres (-3.4%), while ELS rises 14% to 161,000 acres. Assuming “normal” abandonment and yields, the NCC pegs production at roughly 12.7m bales.
What’s driving it
The NCC frames the shift as a relative-price rotation story: cotton prices were broadly flat versus last year’s survey window, soybeans firmed a bit, and corn softened—nudging acreage away from cotton in several regions.
Where it moves
- Mid-South is the big pullback (-20.6% to about 1.2m acres).
- Southeast also eases (-4.9%).
- Southwest is slightly higher (+1.6%), with Texas marginally up in upland acres.
- Western upland declines (-7.2%).
Why this matters for textiles
A smaller U.S. crop doesn’t automatically mean tighter global cotton—stocks, Brazil/Australia output, and demand do the heavy lifting—but it raises the sensitivity of 2026 pricing to weather shocks, especially if policy-linked demand (eg, “US-origin cotton” provisions in trade deals) keeps attention on American supply.
