The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for September 2025 projects a modest increase in global cotton production for the 2025–26 season, raising output to 117.68 million bales. This growth is primarily attributed to higher production in major cotton-producing countries such as China, India, and Australia. However, this increase is partially offset by reduced output in Turkiye, Mexico, and several West African nations, reflecting regional fluctuations in climate and cultivation conditions.
Global cotton consumption is also expected to rise, now forecast at 118.83 million bales, marking an upward revision of approximately 850,000 bales from earlier estimates. The growth in consumption is driven largely by China and Vietnam, where textile demand and production capacities continue to expand. In contrast, consumption in Turkiye has been revised downward due to prevailing economic pressures and reduced mill activity.
The outlook for global cotton trade also shows slight improvement, with expected trade volumes rising to 43.70 million bales, up from 43.59 million in the previous projection. This marginal increase signals sustained international demand, particularly from major importing countries. Meanwhile, global beginning and ending stocks have both been revised downward. Beginning stocks are now estimated at 74.06 million bales, while ending stocks are projected to decline to 73.14 million bales, marking the lowest global cotton stock levels in four years. This tightening of stocks may add upward pressure to global prices, especially if consumption trends remain strong.
In the United States, production forecasts have seen a slight upward adjustment. However, other key figures—including U.S. exports, consumption, imports, and ending stocks—remain largely unchanged from previous estimates. The overall picture suggests that while supply is improving modestly, demand is outpacing it, leading to a drawdown in global inventories.
