The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its 2025 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 0.9%, rebounding from a previously expected 0.2% contraction in its April outlook, though still below the 2.7% pre–tariff-hike estimate. This adjustment is largely driven by US importers frontloading shipments early in the year amid anticipation of increased tariffs, significantly boosting first-quarter trade figures.
In Q1 2025, the US saw an 11% year-on-year rise in import volumes, including a sharp 14% quarter-on-quarter spike, followed by a 16% drop in Q2. This temporal shift inflates short-term prospects while signaling weaker future demand.
Looking ahead, trade volume growth in 2026 is expected to diminish to 1.8%, down from an earlier projection of 2.5%, as the dampening effect of higher tariffs enters full force.
Regionally, Asian economies remain the strongest contributors to trade growth, although their influence is projected to decline in 2026 compared to earlier forecasts. North America, despite its negative outlook for both 2025 and 2026, will have a mitigated impact this year, thanks to the frontloading effect. Conversely, Europe’s contribution to trade has shifted slightly negative for 2025.
Other regions, particularly energy exporters, may see contractions, as falling oil prices reduce export revenues and dampen import demand.
