The latest KPMG Global Economic Outlook (June 2025) warns that global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.7% in 2025, a significant drop from 3.2% in 2024, before slightly rebounding to 2.8% in 2026. This slowdown, the slowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis, reflects mounting geopolitical tensions, rising de-globalization pressures, and heightened trade uncertainty—leading many executives to “pause and prepare” on investment decisions.
The forecast highlights that global inflation is easing, with projections dropping from 4.5% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, and further to 3.1% in 2026. However, nearly one-third of executives in KPMG’s survey cited macroeconomic instability and geopolitical challenges as their top concerns—underscoring the pervasive influence of policy and trade uncertainties.
This aligns with similar analyses from other major institutions: the OECD expects global growth of about 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, while the World Bank sees it slowing further to 2.3% in 2025, citing trade barriers and tighter financial regimes as key restraints. UN DESA estimates even moderate growth at 2.
4% for 2025, down from 2.9% the previous year.
In summary, multiple global forecasts now paint a more cautious economic outlook. Growth is expected to hover between 2.3% and 2.9% in 2025, with KPMG specifically projecting 2.
7%. Persistent trade tensions, policy unpredictability, and geopolitical headwinds are clearly shaping the slowdown—raising challenges for business investment, financial markets, and global supply chains.
