Export growth persists in 2025, yet deeper restructuring—not volume alone—will decide the industry’s future.
Vietnam’s textile and garment exports are expected to reach USD 46 billion in 2025, a 5.6% year-on-year increase, keeping the country among the world’s top three apparel exporters. The outcome falls short of the official USD 48 billion target, but industry leaders view it as a holding gain in a year marked by weak global demand, trade tensions and tightening sustainability rules.
According to Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, the USD 2 billion shortfall reflects external shocks rather than domestic underperformance. Escalating US–China trade frictions, geopolitical uncertainty and subdued consumer spending in the US and EU have constrained orders. Preferential trade agreements such as the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, industry leaders warn, will deliver real advantage only if firms raise local content and comply with increasingly strict environmental and traceability standards.
The structural challenges are becoming clearer. Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group notes that while textiles remain Vietnam’s third-largest source of export earnings, the sector is still heavily dependent on imported raw materials—an exposure that could prove costly if rules of origin tighten further, particularly in the US market. Vietnam also remains concentrated in cut-make-trim manufacturing, with limited progress in higher-margin activities such as design, branding and distribution. Low labour costs, once a decisive advantage, are no longer enough.
Looking ahead, the industry has set ambitious goals: USD 64.5 billion in exports by 2030, annual growth of 6.5–7%, and a domestic market worth up to USD 9 billion. Achieving this will require greening production, digitalisation, lifting local material use above 60%, and building internationally recognisable Vietnamese brands.
The strategic shift is already under way. More producers are moving toward FOB and ODM models, taking greater control over design, sourcing and logistics. The question now is whether Vietnam can move fast enough—from scale to substance—before sustainability becomes not just a market requirement, but a barrier to entry.
