USDA’s lower import forecast suggests weaker apparel orders are now feeding back into Bangladesh’s spinning sector through lower yarn demand and rising inventories.
Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest apparel exporter, is expected to import 7.9 million bales of cotton in marketing year 2025/26 (August–July), down from the USDA’s previous forecast of 8.0 million. The agency also cut its estimate of Bangladesh’s cotton consumption to 8.0 million bales, from 8.1 million a month earlier.
The downgrade comes as Bangladesh’s garment exports remain under pressure. In the first eight months of fiscal year 2025/26, apparel shipments fell 3.73% year on year to about $25.79 billion, with knitwear exports down 4.5% and woven garments down nearly 3%.
This matters because Bangladesh’s textile chain is tightly linked: weaker export orders reduce local yarn demand, which in turn depresses cotton use. Industry executives say spinning mills are already carrying large unsold yarn inventories even as gas and electricity shortages have forced many mills to operate well below capacity. The result is a double squeeze—softer demand and impaired production efficiency.
Globally, USDA raised its 2025/26 cotton production forecast to 121.0 million bales while trimming world mill use to 118.6 million, citing weaker demand in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam. For Bangladesh, the near-term question is simple: can garment orders recover fast enough to clear yarn stocks and revive mill consumption?
