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Thursday, February 22, 2024

Global cotton production likely to be higher than consumption for second consecutive year

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has projected global cotton lint production at 25.4 million metric tons (MT) in the 2023-2024 season, a rise of 3.25 percent from 24.6 million metric tons in 2022-2023. But consumption is projected to dip marginally from 23.5 million MT in 2022-2023 to 23.4 million MT in 2023-2024.

The ICAC projected at the 81st plenary meeting in Mumbai that in 2023-2024, India’s share in global production will fall by 2 percent to 21 percent. However, it would still remain the second-largest cotton producer.

China’s share would decline from 2 percent to 30 percent on the consumption side, but India’s cotton consumption would remain static at 21 percent. India’s area under cotton is projected to slip marginally.

The role of price volatility is largely influencing cotton plantations around the world. However, the trend is likely to reverse globally from 32 million hectares in 2022-2023 to 33 million hectares in 2023-2024.

It was further stated that in 2022-23, world trade would hit 8 million MT and is projected to grow to 9.2 million MT in 2023-2024. In 2023-2024, the top exporting country — the United States — is likely to see a fall in its share of exports globally to 29 percent — from 34 percent in 2022-23.

Further, the US is likely to witness a rise in long-staple (LS) and extra-long-staple (ELS) production from 72,000 MT last year to 1,03,000 MT in 2022-2023. This rise will be across top producers in this category, such as Egypt, India, and China. India is likely to dominate the consumption in this category, even as demand declines — from 1,59,000 MT last year to 1,50,000 MT in 2022-2023.

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