Global cotton production is projected to decline by 4% in the 2026/27 season to 24.8 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to remain relatively steady at 25.0 million tonnes, according to the March 2026 edition of Cotton This Month.
Lower cotton prices, shifting planting intentions in major producing countries, and weaker demand — particularly from China — are contributing to the projected reduction in output. With production currently exceeding consumption in 2025/26, the anticipated decline next season could bring global supply and demand closer to balance.
China is expected to remain the world’s largest producer and consumer of cotton, though its use of cotton is projected to decline modestly as manmade fibers gain market share. India, Brazil, and the United States continue to play central roles in global supply, while Bangladesh and Vietnam remain key drivers of import demand.
World cotton lint trade in 2026/27 is projected at 9.6 million tonnes. Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter, followed by the United States.
Recent trade policy developments — including new US tariff measures and updated trade agreements involving Bangladesh, India, and the European Union — introduce additional uncertainty into the global cotton market. The full implications of these measures will depend on implementation and market response.
