Trade growth will be driven less by abundant production than by tighter supply-demand balances, stock drawdowns and shifting sourcing relationships.
Global cotton trade is projected to expand from 9.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 10.3 million tonnes by 2028/29, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee’s 2026 World Cotton Trade Report. ICAC expects volumes to reach 9.6 million tonnes in 2026/27 and 10.1 million tonnes in 2027/28, extending a gradual recovery from 9.2 million tonnes in 2024/25.
Supply tightens around stable mill demand
World cotton production is forecast to fall 2% to 25.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, while consumption remains firm at 25.5 million tonnes. The narrowing gap would make importing countries more dependent on inventories held by major exporters. Stronger-than-expected textile demand, particularly in China, could accelerate stock drawdowns and lift trade volumes and prices.
China’s imports are projected to rebound by about 42% to 1.6 million tonnes in 2025/26 after falling to an eight-year low. Additional sliding-scale quotas of approximately 300,000 tonnes, alongside the existing 894,000-tonne tariff-rate quota, are supporting the recovery.
Brazil consolidates export leadership
Brazil remained the largest cotton lint exporter in 2025/26, with shipments rising 14% as production reached a record 4.2 million tonnes. It accounted for an estimated 34% of world exports, ahead of the United States at 27%. However, Brazil’s 2026/27 output is forecast to decline 10% to 3.8 million tonnes, potentially reducing exports by 6%.
Bangladesh and Vietnam remain central import markets, while India’s purchases have risen sharply in response to domestic demand and temporary tariff relief.
Pakistan’s import dependence deepens
Pakistan imported an estimated 810,000 tonnes in 2025/26 after a 173% increase the previous season. ICAC projects imports rising another 5% to 849,000 tonnes in 2026/27 as domestic output falls 18% to around 900,000 tonnes.
The next market test will be whether China’s recovery outweighs weaker production, elevated energy and fertilizer costs, tariff changes and shipping disruption. For spinning mills, origin diversification and inventory planning will become more important as supply cushions narrow.
