Weak domestic cotton output is turning raw-material security into a central cost and competitiveness issue for Pakistan’s textile value chain.
Pakistan’s textile industry may need to import about 7.2 million local bales of cotton in the 2026-27 cotton year as domestic production remains far below mill requirements. Industry estimates, based on USDA projections converted into Pakistan’s 160kg bale measure, place domestic output at around 6.94 million bales, against projected consumption of roughly 14.15 million bales.
A widening supply deficit
The USDA’s Pakistan cotton outlook forecasts 2026-27 production at 5.05 million 480-lb bales, about 3% lower than the previous season, citing stagnant planted area, average-yield assumptions and continued farmer reluctance in Punjab. The report says cotton has lost ground to crops such as corn, sugarcane and rice because of volatile prices, rising input costs, pest pressure and weaker profitability.
Consumption is also under pressure. USDA forecasts Pakistan’s cotton use at 10.2 million 480-lb bales, noting that many mills are operating below capacity while some independent spinning units have closed. Even so, domestic output remains insufficient, leaving larger and vertically integrated mills dependent on imported cotton for export-oriented yarns and fabrics.
Imports become structural
USDA projects Pakistan’s cotton imports at 5.2 million 480-lb bales in 2026-27, equal to more than seven million local bales. Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as Pakistan’s largest supplier, mainly on pricing, while Afghan cotton flows have been disrupted by border closures and tighter controls.
The domestic ginning season has begun slowly, with six Punjab factories and two Sindh factories reportedly operational. Local prices were stable, with phutti at about Rs11,500 per 40kg and cotton near Rs22,500 per maund, while clearer price direction is expected after arrivals improve.
Budget pressure rises
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq has urged removal of sales tax on cottonseed, cottonseed oil and oilcake, arguing that heavy taxation is pushing ginners and oil mills toward undocumented trade. Industry leaders are also seeking relief on energy, markup, taxation and super tax to revive mill utilisation.
The next signal will come from the federal budget. Without credible relief for growers, ginners and mills, Pakistan’s cotton deficit is likely to remain a structural import dependency rather than a seasonal shortage.
