In its October report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that Brazil’s cotton production in 2023-24 will exceed that of the US for the first time. USDA also added that Brazil is close to surpassing US cotton exports for the first time since the 19th century. USDA also made major changes to the way the agency calculates various cotton parameters in Brazil.
The agency did a broad review of Brazil’s cotton production numbers dating back to 2000, leading to major changes in its ending stock numbers for both Brazil and the world market. USDA moved Brazil’s cotton production figures from one crop year to the next in its harvest calendars to better align with the country’s harvest and export schedule.
“Last month’s 2022-23 estimates of 14.4 million bales is now the basis for the 2023-24 production estimate. Therefore, each year’s output estimate was transferred to the next business year,” USDA stated. Brazil’s new production estimate for 2023-24 was adjusted to 14.6 million bales, which also reflects updates from the Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB).
Brazilian 2023-24 opening stocks as of August 1, 2023, are now estimated at 5.8 million bales, compared to last month’s estimate of 16.4 million bales. In the report, the USDA slightly hiked and projected world cotton output at 112.6 million bales, while keeping usage virtually unchanged at 115.8 million bales.