Uncertain weather and higher than expected rains have upset the forecast of cotton output in India. At the beginning of August Indian Cotton Association estimated the crop in Northern India to cross 58 lakh bales, the latest estimates are only 51 lakh bales.
On August 01, this year the ICAL predicted that cotton production would increase by 23.40 per to 58.3 lakh bales of 170kg each in Northern India including Rajasthan during the new season 2022-23.
Traditionally the new cotton season in India starts in October and ends in September next year. But this year the crop started arriving much earlier and was expected to pick pace by the mid of September. The crop size in different regions of North India according ICAL was 19.49 lakh bales in Haryana, up from 15.11 lakh bales in the previous season. The production in Punjab was likely to decrease to 6.89 lakh bales from 7.21 lakh bales of last season.
However, after its meeting this week, the ICAL had to revise its estimates of cotton production to 51 lakh bales of 170kg each for marketing year 2022-23. The production estimates cover the region comprising Punjab, Haryana, upper Rajasthan, and lower Rajasthan. Slower growth of the cotton plant due to wet weather is expected to lead to the lower productivity.
Meanwhile traders warned that cotton prices would move upwards as a result of decline in cotton output this season. In fact, the cotton prices posted a gain of INR75 per maund (37.5 kg) at the start of the week to INR7200-7250 per maund in ready trade. It is equivalent to Rs. 20160-20300 per maund in Pakistani currency.
