The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has warned that rising global uncertainty poses significant risks to the economic growth of the ASEAN+3 region, which includes the ten ASEAN nations along with China, Japan, and South Korea. Growth forecasts have been revised down to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, reflecting the impact of escalating external challenges.
Temporary gains from front-loaded exports, as businesses rushed shipments ahead of potential U.S. tariff hikes, supported growth earlier this year. However, AMRO cautioned that the unpredictability of trade policies—particularly the risk of wider U.S. tariffs—could undermine export momentum and dampen overall economic stability. In a downside scenario where tariffs expand further, regional growth could slip below 3%, one of the weakest performances since the Asian Financial Crisis outside of the pandemic period.
Despite these concerns, the region continues to show resilience. Strong domestic demand, stable labor markets, and early monetary easing by several central banks have helped soften external pressures. A stronger performance of most regional currencies has also supported stability and investor confidence.
Even so, structural risks remain pressing. Demographic shifts such as aging populations, climate-related vulnerabilities, and productivity challenges threaten to limit long-term growth prospects. AMRO underscored that policymakers must act on both short-term challenges and deeper reforms to ensure sustainable and inclusive development across the ASEAN+3 region.
