Record cotton prices could revive planting and cut import dependence, yet weather delays and seed-policy risks may still prevent the country from turning a price rally into a production recovery.
Pakistan’s cotton market has surged to new highs, with prices reaching Rs19,500 per maund after climbing Rs1,500 in a week and Rs3,000 over the past fortnight. Phutti has also jumped sharply to Rs9,300 per 40kg, reflecting tight supply, import disruption and rising market anxiety.
What is driving the rally
The immediate trigger is geopolitical. The Gulf crisis has disrupted cotton imports and added volatility to global commodity flows, while international cotton prices have also firmed. That is tightening the domestic market at a time when Pakistan remains heavily dependent on imported fibre.
The result is a classic scarcity premium: local prices are rising not simply because demand is strong, but because supply security looks less certain.
Why it matters
In theory, such prices should encourage farmers to plant more cotton in the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. That could help Pakistan reduce its reliance on imported cotton and edible oil, easing pressure on foreign exchange and supporting the textile value chain.
But high prices alone do not guarantee recovery. Sowing has already been slowed by unusual weather, including lower temperatures and light rainfall in major cotton zones.
What could go wrong next
A bigger structural concern lies in seed policy. If exclusive rights over certified varieties lead to market concentration and weaker seed availability, farmers may end up with fewer choices and poorer-quality inputs.
That would turn a promising price signal into a missed national opportunity.
