World cotton consumption is now forecast to exceed production by 5.3 million bales, tightening inventories even as Brazil expands exports and Asian mill demand strengthens.
Global cotton fundamentals have tightened further in the USDA’s August outlook, with 2026/27 consumption raised to 122.92 million 480-lb bales, or about 26.8 million tonnes. Production is forecast at 117.63 million bales, leaving use approximately 5.29 million bales above output and pushing ending stocks down to 69.69 million bales.
Asian mill use drives the revision
USDA increased global consumption by almost 1 million bales from its July forecast, led by China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia. China’s mill use was lifted from 41.5 million to 42 million bales, while India increased from 26 million to 26.5 million. Vietnam rose from 8 million to 8.2 million bales.
Bangladesh moved in the opposite direction. Its 2026/27 import forecast was reduced from 7.6 million to 7.4 million bales, while consumption was cut from 7.8 million to 7.6 million, reflecting more cautious expectations for its textile sector. Pakistan was unchanged at 5.1 million bales of production, 5 million of imports and 10.2 million of domestic use, underlining its continuing dependence on imported fibre.
Brazil gains export share
Global cotton trade is now projected at 43.82 million bales, up nearly 500,000 from July. Brazil’s crop was raised to 18.25 million bales, with exports increasing to 15.3 million, reinforcing its position as the leading global supplier. India’s imports were lifted sharply from 2.5 million to 3 million bales.
US production, meanwhile, was trimmed to 13.61 million bales despite a larger planted area, as USDA lowered expected yield to 798 pounds per harvested acre. US exports remain forecast at 12.3 million bales.
Inventory cushion shrinks
The most important signal for mills is the decline in global ending stocks: USDA cut its forecast by more than 1.5 million bales in one month, taking the stocks-to-use ratio to 56.7%.
If Asian consumption continues to strengthen while production remains below mill use, cotton buyers could face a progressively smaller supply cushion. The next indicators to watch are Chinese import demand, Brazil’s export pace, India’s import requirements and crop performance in the United States and Pakistan.
