Stronger Asian spinning demand and weaker global production are set to draw down cotton stocks sharply in 2026/27, improving cotton’s price outlook after several subdued seasons.
Global cotton mill consumption is forecast to reach 122.92 million 480-lb bales in 2026/27, up from 121.13 million bales in 2025/26, according to USDA’s September WASDE report. The rise comes as world production is projected to fall to 117.32 million bales, leaving mill use roughly 5.6 million bales above output.
The latest USDA series shows consumption approaching the elevated levels last seen around 2020/21, reflecting improving demand for cotton textiles and restocking across parts of the yarn and fabric supply chain.
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Asia drives the recovery
China remains the world’s dominant cotton consumer, with 2026/27 mill use forecast at 42.0 million bales, up from 41.6 million. India is expected to increase consumption to 26.5 million bales, while Pakistan is projected at 10.2 million bales, recovering from 9.9 million in 2025/26.
Bangladesh is forecast at 7.6 million bales and Vietnam at 8.2 million, reinforcing Asia’s concentration of global spinning capacity.
Stocks fall as mills outpace crops
The production-consumption gap is expected to push global ending stocks down to 69.86 million bales, from 75.31 million in 2025/26. USDA’s September estimate is slightly above August’s 69.69 million-bale forecast but still represents a sharp year-on-year contraction.
USDA also raised its projected 2026/27 US season-average farm price from 75 to 78 cents per pound, reflecting tighter supply conditions.
Pakistan’s import requirement rises
Pakistan’s domestic crop is forecast at only 5.0 million bales, against mill consumption of 10.2 million. USDA therefore expects imports to reach 5.1 million bales, up from 4.4 million last season.
For spinning mills, the key issue is whether stronger demand translates into healthier yarn margins before raw-cotton prices rise materially. The next signals will be Asian yarn orders, polyester pricing, crop revisions and whether Pakistan can secure competitively priced imported cotton without logistics or currency disruptions.
