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Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Global cotton scenario this week

Phutti for the 2024-25 season from Lower Sindh has finally started arriving, and ginning factories are expected to begin partial operations in May and the prices of new cotton would be determined after that. 

However the government is yet to announce a support price for cotton. The delays are causing unrest among farmers. Cotton prices in Sindh and Punjab ranged from Rs 19,500 to Rs 21,500 per maund, while Phutti prices in Punjab were between Rs 9,500 and Rs 10,000 per 40 kg. The Spot Rate remained unchanged at Rs 19,700 per maund, and Polyester Fiber was available at Rs 367 per kg.

Elsewhere in the world the cotton prices are appended below.

China Settlement Price: ZCE: Cotton: 2nd Month data was reported at 15,340.000 RMB/Ton on 09 May 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 15,510.000 RMB/Ton for 08 May 2024. China Settlement Price: ZCE: Cotton: 2nd Month data is updated daily, averaging 15,515.000 RMB/Ton from Sep 2004 to 09 May 2024, with 4783 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 34,270.000 RMB/Ton in 17 Feb 2011 and a record low of 10,255.000 RMB/Ton in 16 Mar 2016.

The export price per kilogram of Cotton from Australia over the last five years has seen a general downward trend. In 2017, the price was $1.82, and in 2018 it rose slightly to $2.01. However, in 2019 and 2020, the price dropped to $2.00 and $1.82 respectively. In 2021, the price increased to $1.95, and in 2022 it rose to $2.48. Based on this trend, it is likely that the export price per kilogram of Cotton from Australia in 2023 will be around $2.30, and in 2024 it will be around $2.15.

The retail price range for Vietnam cotton is between US$ 1.46 and US$ 2.43 per kilogram or between US$ 0.66 and US$ 1.10 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Dong for cotton is between VND 36,431.25 and VND 60,718.75 per kilogram or between VND 16,522.11 and VND 27,536.85 per pound(lb) in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

The retail price range for Cambodia cotton is between US$ 0.25 and US$ 0.44 per kilogram or between US$ 0.11 and US$ 0.20 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Riel for cotton is between KHR 1,027.19 and KHR 1,848.94 per kilogram or between KHR 465.84 and KHR 838.52 per pound(lb) in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap.

The retail price range for Thailand cotton is between US$ 1.45 and US$ 3.39 per kilogram or between US$ 0.66 and US$ 1.54 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Baht for cotton is between THB 49.82 and THB 116.25 per kilogram or between THB 22.60 and THB 52.72 per pound(lb) in Bangkok and Chiand Mai.

The retail price range for Myanmar cotton seeds is between US$ 0.44 and US$ 0.92 per kilogram or between US$ 0.20 and US$ 0.42 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Kyat for cotton seeds is between MMK 925.85 and MMK 1,954.57 per kilogram or between MMK 419.89 and MMK 886.43 per pound(lb) in Naypyitaw and Yangon.

The retail price range for Bangladesh cotton is between US$ 0.92 and US$ 1.61 per kilogram or between US$ 0.42 and US$ 0.73 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Taka for cotton is between BDT 98.53 and BDT 173.45 per kilogram or between BDT 44.68 and BDT 78.66 per pound(lb) in Dhaka and Chittagong (Chattogram).

The retail price range for Kazakhstan cotton is between US$ 0.76 and US$ 1.21 per kilogram or between US$ 0.35 and US$ 0.55 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Tenge for cotton is between KZT 342.50 and KZT 541.93 per kilogram or between KZT 155.33 and KZT 245.77 per pound(lb) in Nur-Sultan and Almaty.

The retail price range for Uzbekistan cotton is between US$ 0.48 and US$ 0.86 per kilogram or between US$ 0.22 and US$ 0.39 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Uzbekistan Sum for cotton is between UZS 5,993.13 and UZS 10,787.63 per kilogram or between UZS 2,717.97 and UZS 4,892.35 per pound(lb) in Tashkent and Samarkand.

In India Cotton decreased 2.90 USd/Lbs or 3.58 percent since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Cotton reached an all time high of 227 in March of 2011.

The retail price range for Portugal cotton is between US$ 2.23 and US$ 5.65 per kilogram or between US$ 1.01 and US$ 2.56 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Euro for cotton is between EUR 2.06 and EUR 5.22 per kilogram or between EUR 0.94 and EUR 2.37 per pound(lb) in Lisbon and Porto.

The retail price range for Mali cotton is between US$ 0.78 and US$ 1.56 per kilogram or between US$ 0.35 and US$ 0.71 per pound(lb). The retail price range in CFA Franc BCEAO for cotton is between XOF 474.24 and XOF 948.49 per kilogram or between XOF 215.08 and XOF 430.15 per pound(lb) in Bamako and Sikasso.

The retail price range for Spain cotton is between US$ 3.41 and US$ 4.39 per kilogram or between US$ 1.55 and US$ 1.99 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Euro for cotton is between EUR 3.15 and EUR 4.06 per kilogram or between EUR 1.43 and EUR 1.84 per pound(lb) in Madrid and Barcelona.

The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (Abrapa), through the Cotton Brazil initiative, was part of the first official mission held by Brazil’s Foreign Affairs Ministry to Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The aim was to strengthen commercial ties between the two countries officially.

The Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Mauro Vieira, led the Brazilian delegation on this historic trip to Bangladesh – an Asian country with which Brazil had trade worth US$2.3 billion in 2023. In addition to holding a business seminar in partnership with the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), on April 8th, the schedule also included working meetings and technical visits.

Abrapa was represented by the director of International Relations, Marcelo Duarte, responsible for the Cotton Brazil program. Mr. Duarte accompanied the ambassador on visits to two of the main Bangladeshi textile mills: BEXIMCO and Square.

In the United States after gaining a little ground last week, July futures spent the week on a downward descent. July futures settled at 75.62 cents per pound, finishing 546 points lower for the week.

Volume increased toward the end of the week, as total open interest increased by 3,255 contracts to reach a balance of 205,869. Bales that are eligible to deliver against futures (certificated stocks) continue to increase. They were last reported at 186,121, an increase of 7,974 from last week.

Volatility surrounded major indexes due to the fears of an interest rate increase, but it managed to finish the week slightly higher than last week. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that interest rates will remain unchanged until inflation shows signs of progress.

U.S. inflation remains stubborn and above the Fed’s 2 percent target, as evidenced by the comments made by Chairman Jerome Powell following the FOMC meeting. U.S. private employers added 192,000 jobs in April, although pay growth continues to slow. Employers reported 8.5 million U.S. job openings in March – a decrease from the 8.8 million reported in February and the lowest level reported since February 2021. After the record 50.3 percent Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported in March, the rate decreased 1.1 percent to 49.2 percent for April.

The U.S. Export Sales Report showed a net total of 97,400 Upland bales sold for the week ending April 25, a decrease of 45percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior four-week average. The biggest buyer of Upland cotton was Vietnam with 28,400 bales, followed by China with 18,500 bales, and Pakistan with 17,400 bales. Shipments totaled 180,000 bales for the week, below the pace of what is needed to reach expectations. New crop sales of 34,400 bales were reported, with 9,200 to Vietnam, 7,500 to Turkey, and 5,400 to Mexico. A net total of 5,400 Pima bales were sold, and 4,600 bales were shipped for the week.

This week was primarily focused on the FOMC meeting; the next week will be data-filled. Traders will look to the U.S. Export Sales Report and Crop Progress Report. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report will be updated next Friday, which should be the final report release for the 2023 Crop.

Throughout the country, cotton is now 15 percent planted and 18 percent planted in Texas. Weather continues to be favorable in South Texas as the crop progresses. Last week, scattered showers were welcomed throughout the Rolling Plains but tended to push east as they advanced along the caprock. Rain will be welcomed throughout the area as planting for the WTX/OK/KS crop is inching closer.

As of Thursday afternoon, grower offers totaled 31,545 bales. On the G2B platform 1,692 bales traded during the week with an average price of 68.40 cents/lb. The average loan was 53.80 bringing the average premium received over the loan to 14.60 cents/lb.

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