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Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Global cotton scenario this week

Cotton sales from Sindh have increased as the new cotton crop has started arriving. This resulted in steading the local cotton market and trading volumes have started improving a bit. Pakistan The local cotton market remained steady on Thursday, with trading volume improving a little bit.

The rate of new cotton in Sindh is in between 19,500 to Rs 20,700 per maund. The rate of cotton in Punjab is in between Rs 21,000 to Rs 21,500 per maund. The rate of new Phutti is in between Rs 9,000 to Rs 10,500 per 40 kg. Approximately, 2000 bales of new cotton of Sindh were sold from 19,500 to 20,700 per maund. According to the details 200 bales of Sanghar were sold at Rs 20,700 per maund, 200 bales of Hyderabad were sold at Rs 20,500 per maund and 1600 bales of Tando Adam were sold at Rs 20,500 per maund.

The Spot Rate of cotton remained unchanged at Rs 19,700 per maund, while Polyester Fiber was available at Rs 367 per kg.

Cotton harvesting has either started or is about to start in the world. In Australia the busy cotton season typically lasts for around 6 months, starting in approximately March/April (when harvesting in other parts of the world is almost over)and ending in September/October – the exact start and end dates of the season depend greatly on a variety of factors in both the region and the rainfall. In India cotton is sown in April-May (when harvesting in Australia starts) in Punjab and Haryana and is harvested in December-January, which is before the crop can be affected by winter frost. It is sown until October in the peninsular portion of India and harvested between January and May because there is no chance of winter frost in these regions.  In Pakistan the cotton harvest has started in Southern Sindh while harvesting in Punjab has not yet started.

As the rates of cotton in Pakistan and the United States are given separately, the rates of all other major cotton provided separately. The retail price range for Australia cotton is between US$ 4.04 and US$ 8.67 per kilogram or between US$ 1.83 and US$ 3.93 per pound(lb).The retail price range in Australian Dollar for cotton is between AUD 6.07 and AUD 13.04 per kilogram or between AUD 2.75 and AUD 5.91 per pound(lb) in Canberra and Melbourne. The retail price range for Argentina cotton is between US$ 1.21 and US$ 1.25 per kilogram or between US$ 0.55 and US$ 0.57 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Argentine Peso for cotton is between ARS 281.73 and ARS 290.75 per kilogram or between ARS 127.77 and ARS 131.86 per pound(lb) in Buenos Aires and Cordoba.

The retail price range for Brazil cotton is between US$ 1.59 and US$ 1.67 per kilogram or between US$ 0.72 and US$ 0.76 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Brazilian Real for cotton is between BRL 7.93 and BRL 8.37 per kilogram or between BRL 3.60 and BRL 3.80 per pound(lb) in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. The retail price range for Portugal cotton is between US$ 2.24 and US$ 5.66 per kilogram or between US$ 1.01 and US$ 2.57 per pound(lb). Click here to see today’s exact prices of cotton in Portugal.The retail price range in Euro for cotton is between EUR 2.07 and EUR 5.23 per kilogram or between EUR 0.94 and EUR 2.37 per pound(lb) in Lisbon and Porto.

The retail price range for Kazakhstan cotton is between US$ 0.75 and US$ 1.19 per kilogram or between US$ 0.34 and US$ 0.54 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Tenge for cotton is between KZT 336.69 and KZT 532.74 per kilogram or between KZT 152.69 and KZT 241.60 per pound(lb) in Nur-Sultan and Almaty. The retail price range for Uzbekistan cotton is between US$ 0.49 and US$ 0.89 per kilogram or between US$ 0.22 and US$ 0.40 per pound(lb). Click here to see today’s exact prices of cotton in Uzbekistan. The retail price range in Uzbekistan Sum for cotton is between UZS 6,148.75 and UZS 11,067.75 per kilogram or between UZS 2,788.55 and UZS 5,019.39 per pound(lb) in Tashkent and Samarkand.

The retail price range for Mali cotton seeds is between US$ 0.64 and US$ 0.81 per kilogram or between US$ 0.29 and US$ 0.37 per pound(lb). The retail price range in CFA Franc BCEAO for cotton seeds is between XOF 390.11 and XOF 494.92 per kilogram or between XOF 176.92 and XOF 224.45 per pound(lb) in Bamako and Sikasso. The retail price range for Turkey cotton is between US$ 2.41 and US$ 3.61 per kilogram or between US$ 1.09 and US$ 1.64 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Turkish Lira for cotton is between TRY 47.72 and TRY 71.58 per kilogram or between TRY 21.64 and TRY 32.46 per pound(lb) in Ankara and Istanbul.

The retail price range for India cotton is between US$ 0.58 and US$ 1.27 per kilogram or between US$ 0.27 and US$ 0.57 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Indian Rupee for cotton is between INR 48.45 and INR 104.98 per kilogram or between INR 21.97 and INR 47.61 per pound(lb) in New Delhi and Mumbai. The retail price range for China cotton seeds is between US$ 2.26 and US$ 5.29 per kilogram or between US$ 1.02 and US$ 2.40 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Yuan Renminbi for cotton seeds is between CNY 15.81 and CNY 37.10 per kilogram or between CNY 7.17 and CNY 16.83 per pound(lb) in Beijing and Shanghai.

In the United States last week’s gains were short-lived as the cotton market faced headwinds from weather and macroeconomic pressure. Since last week’s close, July futures relinquished 396 points, settling at 77.76 cents per pound. The cotton market returned from the holiday and made solid gains, but the advances were short-lived. While the rains in the Southwest were needed, they weighed on the market.

Despite being a shorter trade week, the daily volume traded was heavier than last week. Total open interest was basically unchanged, decreasing 514 contracts to 229,291. Certificated stock reached its lowest level since April. A decrease of 58,074 bales was reported, bringing the total certificated stock to 133,448 bales.

The stock market slid lower due to continued concerns that interest rates would be held higher for longer. Despite overall encouraging reports this week, worries about interest rates kept major indexes down. A surge in Treasury yields also put pressure on the stock market.  

U.S. Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter was revised down to 1.3 percent, showing the economy grew slower than the expected 1.6 percent. Consumer confidence was unexpectedly good, jumping to 102 in May from 97.5 in April. As expected, the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, or PCE, rose 2.7 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent month-over-month in April. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. 

Net sales of U.S. cotton were good this week, but shipments were disappointing. A net total of 222,600 Upland bales were sold, and 172,200 bales were shipped for the week. The number of bales shipped this week is far below the number needed to reach the 12.3 million bale estimate. China was the biggest buyer of Upland cotton, with 191,900 bales, followed by Vietnam with 8,500 bales, Bangladesh with 5,900 bales, Turkey with 5,100 bales, and South Korea with 4,400 bales. 

New crop sales were average for this point in the year. A net total of 78,100 bales were sold for the 2024/25 crop year. A net total of 5,400 Pima bales were sold, and 6,300 bales were shipped.

The weather forecast across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas will continue to be monitored, seeing as final planting dates have passed or are quickly approaching. Outside of that, traders will keep an eye on the usual weekly U.S. Export Sales Report and Crop Progress and Condition Report.

The Rogers Roll began on Thursday, which could generate more activity as positions are rolled forward. U.S. unemployment will be released next Friday, which will shed additional light on the current economic state.

According to this week’s Crop Progress report, 59% of the expected cotton acreage has been planted throughout the country. Planting has progressed rapidly over the past week in West Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, and each state is ahead of the usual pace observed at this point in the year.

 As of Thursday afternoon, grower offers totaled 17,531 bales. On the G2B platform 552 bales traded during the week with an average price of 65.00 cents/lb. The average loan was 46.18 cents/lb., bringing the average premium received over the loan to 18.82 cents/lb.

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