Global trade entered 2025 on a stable footing, with world trade reaching a record $33 trillion in 2024, a 3.7% year-on-year increase. The rise was largely fueled by developing economies and a strong services trade.
However, the UNCTAD report warns of emerging risks, including trade imbalances, evolving policies, and geopolitical tensions.
The gap between developing and advanced economies is widening, with Asia and Latin America remaining strong trade drivers. However, growth has slowed in many advanced economies, and intra-Africa trade is shrinking.
South-South trade continues to hold up, but shifting demand is causing declines in trade between Europe and Central Asia.
The report highlights a shift from nearshoring and friend-shoring trends, as businesses diversify trade networks to mitigate risks. Policies such as tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policies are reshaping global trade flows, with rising protectionism contributing to uncertainty. The US, EU, and China are increasingly linking trade policies to economic security and climate goals.
Trade imbalances returned to 2022 levels, with the US trade deficit growing and China’s surplus expanding. Sectors like apparel and energy experienced slower trade due to weaker demand and policy shifts.
The report stresses the need for global cooperation and balanced policies to prevent fragmentation and sustain long-term growth amid these challenges.
