- According to the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey conducted in January:
- Median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months decreased for the fourth consecutive month to 6% in January from 6.9% in December. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% and remained steady at 2.5% for the three-year horizon. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons stayed lower than the perceived past inflation rate, indicating a more optimistic outlook. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged, suggesting a stable confidence level in predicting future inflation trends.
Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6 per cent), implying a broadly stable labour market. However, quarterly data show that unemployed respondents reported an increase in their expected probability of finding a job over the next three months, which rose to 30.5 per cent in January this year from 27.6 per cent in October 2023. Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained stable, while expectations for nominal spending growth increased marginally.
