The World Trade Statistical Review 2023 presents recent trends in international trade at a time of geopolitical and macroeconomic strains and technological challenges affecting the global economy and supply chains. The data cover merchandise and services trade broken down by geographical origin, main product groups and sectors, along with related data on key economic developments such as GDP growth, commodity prices, and exchange rate fluctuations.
In 2022, world merchandise trade growth slowed as the war in Ukraine led to sharp rises in commodity prices.
Trade growth is expected to be weaker in 2023 as high-interest rates continue to weigh on economic activity.
The volume of world merchandise trade as measured by the average of exports and imports increased by 2.7% in 2022 after growing 9.4% in 2021 as the global economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic. Trade growth in 2022 was accompanied by real GDP growth at market exchange rates of 3.0%, down from 5.9% in 2021.
A 2.7% increase in trade is consistent with WTO forecasts issued after the start of the war in Ukraine but is better than some more pessimistic scenarios considered at that time, which would have seen growth as low as 0.5% if economies had split into competing trade blocs. Large-scale trade fragmentation has been avoided so far but remains a concern as geopolitical tensions rise.
Trade and output growth are expected to be subpar in 2023, as stubbornly high inflation and tighter financial conditions weigh on consumption and investment. The outlook remains clouded by downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, food and energy insecurity, increased risk of financial instability, and high levels of external debt.
The volume of the world merchandise trade grew more strongly than expected in the first three quarters of 2022 before falling sharply in the fourth quarter. Trade continued to contract in the first quarter of 2023 but at a slower pace.
Prices of primary commodities, particularly food and energy rose sharply in 2022 following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, helping to stoke inflation in many economies. Prices eventually receded from their peaks but by May 2023 they remained high by historical standards.
