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Tuesday, May 28, 2024

This week’s cotton scenario

Bears remained stationed in the Pakistani cotton market as ginners sitting on thin stocks from the last harvest await buyers while the millers are still hoping against hope for some relief in power rates, staying away from the cotton market. Only composite mills that use the yarn in house are operating the mills while most are either closed or operating at truncated capacity.

As the trading volumes remained negligible the cotton rates in both Punjab and Sindh remained same ranging between Rs 19,500 to Rs 21,500 per maund, while phutti prices in Punjab were observed between Rs 9,500 and Rs 10,000 per 40 kg. The Spot Rate remained unchanged at Rs 20,300 per maund. Polyester Fiber was available at Rs 367 per kg.

At the onset Textalk would like to explain that it quotes retail cotton rates from different countries that manufacture textile products. Most of these countries do not produce cotton and buy it from different sources.

In fact very few countries produce cotton. India with the annual cotton production of 5,900,000 million tons, was the largest cotton producer in the world in 2024, followed by China 5,730,000 MT, United States 3,963,000 MT, Brazil 2,678,000 MT and Pakistan 981,000. Among the 10 largest producers besides the above five are Uzbekistan 940,000, Turkey 833,000, Australia 608,000, Argentina 349,000, and Mali 340,000. These top ten countries cumulatively produce 22.32 million ton of cotton. Only 2.68 million cotton is produced in the rest of the world.

Cotton stands as the globe’s favored textile fiber, utilized extensively in clothing and diverse fabric applications. Presently, approximately 25 million tons of cotton are cultivated worldwide. Popular textiles such as denim, corduroy, and terrycloth derive from cotton. A single bale of cotton weighs about 480 pounds. Notably, China, leading in cotton production, harvested over 6.4 million tons of cotton in 2021. In 2024 India emerged as top cotton producer commanding a 25 percent share of global production.

The retail price range for Australian cotton is between US$ 4.13 and US$ 8.88 per kilogram or between US$ 1.88 and US$ 4.03 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Australian Dollar for cotton is between AUD 6.22 and AUD 13.36 per kilogram or between AUD 2.82 and AUD 6.06 per pound(lb) in Canberra and Melbourne. The retail price range for Indonesian cotton is between US$ 0.86 and US$ 1.15 per kilogram or between US$ 0.39 and US$ 0.52 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Rupiah for cotton is between IDR 14,334.00 and IDR 19,112.00 per kilogram or between IDR 6,500.68 and IDR 8,667.57 per pound(lb) in Jakarta and Surabaya. The retail price range for Cambodia cotton is between US$ 0.25 and US$ 0.44 per kilogram or between US$ 0.11 and US$ 0.20 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Riel for cotton is between KHR 1,027.19 and KHR 1,848.94 per kilogram or between KHR 465.84 and KHR 838.52 per pound(lb) in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap. The retail price range for Thailand cotton is between US$ 1.45 and US$ 3.39 per kilogram or between US$ 0.66 and US$ 1.54 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Baht for cotton is between THB 49.82 and THB 116.25 per kilogram or between THB 22.60 and THB 52.72 per pound(lb) in Bangkok and Chiand Mai.

The retail price range for Bangladesh cotton is between US$ 0.92 and US$ 1.61 per kilogram or between US$ 0.42 and US$ 0.73 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Taka for cotton is between BDT 98.53 and BDT 173.45 per kilogram or between BDT 44.68 and BDT 78.66 per pound(lb) in Dhaka and Chittagong (Chattogram). The retail price range for Myanmar cotton is between US$ 0.72 and US$ 2.16 per kilogram or between US$ 0.33 and US$ 0.98 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Kyat for cotton is between MMK 1,530.16 and MMK 4,590.48 per kilogram or between MMK 693.95 and MMK 2,081.85 per pound(lb) in Naypyitaw and Yangon. In Inia as per the latest market rates, the average Cotton price is ₹6315.38/Quintal. The lowest market price is ₹5200/Quintal. The costliest market price is ₹7405/Quintal.
The retail price range for Mali cotton is between US$ 0.78 and US$ 1.56 per kilogram or between US$ 0.35 and US$ 0.71 per pound(lb). The retail price range in CFA Franc BCEAO for cotton is between XOF 474.24 and XOF 948.49 per kilogram or between XOF 215.08 and XOF 430.15 per pound(lb) in Bamako and Sikasso. The retail price range for Kazakhstan cotton is between US$ 0.76 and US$ 1.21 per kilogram or between US$ 0.35 and US$ 0.55 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Tenge for cotton is between KZT 342.50 and KZT 541.93 per kilogram or between KZT 155.33 and KZT 245.77 per pound(lb) in Nur-Sultan and Almaty. The retail price range for Uzbekistan cotton is between US$ 0.48 and US$ 0.86 per kilogram or between US$ 0.22 and US$ 0.39 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Uzbekistan Sum for cotton is between UZS 5,993.13 and UZS 10,787.63 per kilogram or between UZS 2,717.97 and UZS 4,892.35 per pound(lb) in Tashkent and Samarkand. The retail price range for Argentina cotton is between US$ 1.23 and US$ 1.27 per kilogram or between US$ 0.56 and US$ 0.57 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Argentine Peso for cotton is between ARS 286.16 and ARS 295.32 per kilogram or between ARS 129.78 and ARS 133.93 per pound(lb) in Buenos Aires and Cordoba.

The retail price range for Turkey cotton is between US$ 2.39 and US$ 3.58 per kilogram or between US$ 1.08 and US$ 1.62 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Turkish Lira for cotton is between TRY 47.28 and TRY 70.92 per kilogram or between TRY 21.44 and TRY 32.16 per pound(lb) in Ankara and Istanbul. The retail price range for Portugal cotton is between US$ 2.23 and US$ 5.65 per kilogram or between US$ 1.01 and US$ 2.56 per pound(lb). The retail price range in Euro for cotton is between EUR 2.06 and EUR 5.22 per kilogram or between EUR 0.94 and EUR 2.37 per pound(lb) in Lisbon and Porto.

In Brazil the 2024 crop figures were updated by Abrapa, and they now forecast production of 3.5 million tonnes (7.7 percent above that recorded in 2022/23). In March, exports totalled 252,800 tonnes, 233 percent higher than in March/23. Shipments so far in the market year (Aug/23-Mar/24), total 1.882 million tonnes – which corresponds to 57.5 percent more than the amount shipped from Aug/22 to Mar/23. This represents the best performance in March since 2021.

In March, 53 percent of Brazilian exports went to China (134,600 ton). Vietnam accounted for17 percent of shipments (42,400 ton) and Bangladesh for 12 percent (31,200 ton). With this performance of Brazilian cotton exports in March, Brazil maintains its second-best performance since the 2018/19 market year.

The average yield in Brazil is estimated to reach 1,809 kg/ha in 2024 – 6.7 percent below the previous crop record. With this performance of Brazilian cotton exports in March, Brazil maintains its second-best performance since the 2018/19 market year. Brazil from exports of 1.882 million ton of cotton earned revenues worth US$ 3.6 billion.

In March, the Cepea/Esalq indicator dropped 13.5 percent, ending the month at 81.6 cents per pound. In NY, the May/24 contract closed the month down 4.3 percent and finished the month at 91.38 cents per pound.

In the United States July futures continued their descent, finishing higher in only one trading session this week. May First Notice Day is less than a week away, so traders are focused on the July contract. July futures settled at 80.61 cents per pound, finishing 464 points lower for the week.

Technical weakness played a big part in this week’s decline. The continued addition of certificated stocks and the chance of rain in West Texas this coming weekend put additional pressure on prices.

Daily volumes were heavy this week as speculative liquidation continued. Total open interest decreased by 31,850 contracts to reach a balance of 201,421. Certificated stocks have reached their highest level since July 2017. They were last reported at 172,732, an increase of 17,687 from the week prior.

U.S. inflation remains stubborn, and the idea that interest rate cuts will happen in 2024 appears unlikely. Major indexes reacted negatively to comments from the Fed, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell every trade session this week. U.S. Retail Sales for March increased 0.7 percent from the prior month. Clothing and clothing accessory sales were down 1.6 percent for the month but have increased 1.4 percent on the year.

China reported a first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 5.3 percent, surpassing expectations of approximately 4.8 percent. Geopolitical tensions escalated between Iran and Israel over the weekend, which briefly brought crude oil prices higher. The geopolitical risk remains, but crude prices fell on news of higher inventories.The U.S. Dollar was higher for the week after the hawkish Fed comments, which put additional pressure on commodities. The housing market slumped after the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped a quarter of a percentage point to 7.1 percent for the week. This is the most significant weekly increase in over a year.

U.S. export sales were relatively strong, and demand spread over 21 countries for the reporting period ending April 11.

Lower prices helped bring about new business. A net total of 146,100 Upland bales were booked, and 266,700 bales were exported for the week. Despite a solid week of sales, the U.S. is still below average regarding the number of exports committed at this point in the year. New crop sales of 80,100 bales were healthy for what is typically sold at this point in the year. A net total of 2,700 Pima bales were sold, and 5,900 bales were shipped for the week.

There might be more activity as traders finish cleaning up the books and rolling their positions forward.The U.S. Export Sales Report will remain a central focus. Southwest weather will also be monitored, as soil moisture remains a concern in some areas.

Throughout the country, cotton is now 9 percent planted and 13 percent planted in Texas. South Texas should be done with planting in the next few weeks. For the most part, the season has gotten off to a good start this year but would benefit from some timely rains.

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