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Saturday, February 24, 2024

US forecast to produce less cotton than previously expected

The US is forecast to produce less cotton than expected, but increased production in other countries will compensate for the global supply and demand balance reduction.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its estimate for the US 2023-24 cotton harvest to 2.98 million tons, mainly due to challenges in Texas.

The projection, if confirmed, should represent a reduction of 14 percent compared to the previous harvest.

As a consequence, the estimate for US cotton exports was also adjusted downwards to 2.90 million tons by USDA.

Even with the reduction, the US would continue to be the global export leader, followed by Brazil, whose cotton shipments in the ongoing season were estimated at 2.76 million tons.

Fibre transit stocks in the US were estimated at 696,000 tons, a drop of 31.8 percent from the final stocks of the previous harvest.

The projection for the global cotton harvest was adjusted slightly upward to 27.16 million tons, while the expectation for exports was somewhat reduced to 10.33 million tons.

Despite forecasting more excellent production in China, USDA also increased its estimate for Chinese cotton imports to 2.76 million tons, mainly to build cotton stocks in the country. As a result of global adjustments, USDA projections for final cotton stocks in the world were raised to 20.25 million tons, resulting in a stock/use ratio of 54.3 percent, above the 52.5 percent estimated in the previous season.

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