The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its April 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, has projected a rise in global cotton ending stocks for the 2024–25 season, despite slight declines in production and exports.
Global cotton output is now forecast at 120.
89 million bales, marginally lower than the previous estimate of 120.96 million bales. This decrease is largely attributed to ongoing trade uncertainties and tariff-related challenges. Global exports are also expected to decline by 380,000 bales, bringing the total to 42.33 million bales.
Meanwhile, global ending stocks are projected to increase by 530,000 bales to 78.86 million bales—the highest level since the 2019–20 season.
Consumption has also been revised downward to 116.02 million bales, primarily due to weakening demand in key markets such as China and Indonesia.
In the United States, the cotton balance sheet reflects a minor reduction in exports, while the average farm price remains steady at 63 cents per pound.
These shifts signal a complex global cotton outlook shaped by trade dynamics, softening demand, and evolving market conditions.
