The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) expects a boost in the cotton trade published in The Cotton Update on 1 February 2021. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 February 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 March 2021.
The Executive summary and Highlights from the February 2021 Cotton This Month include:
– Double-digit production decreases in major cotton-producing countries
– Production declines in consuming countries to drive an increase in trade in 2020/21
– This season, US exports will jump by 45%, and Brazil’s exports will increase by 17%
– Ending stocks for the 2020/21 season are now estimated at 21.1 million tonnes, potentially
According to ICAC, the global cotton production is expected to decline by 8% to 24 million tonnes in the coming season, with double-digit decreases in crop size projected in the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, West Africa, Turkey and Uzbekistan. Due to those decreases, the decline is expected to be in cotton consuming countries that rely on domestic production to feed their mills; global trade is projected to rebound in 2020/21 to 9.3 million tonnes. Two of the world’s top exporters, the USA and Brazil, are estimated to see 45% and 17% increases in the coming season, respectively.
The ending stocks for the 2020/21 season are now estimated at 21.1 million tonnes, potentially easing pressure on prices. The Secretariat’s current price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 73.5 cents per pound.
The ICAC is an association of members of cotton producing, consuming, and trading countries. The Committee was formed in 1939, and the Secretariat was established in 1946. The annual budget is US$1.8 million, of which about 85% comes from members assessments and 15% from the sale of subscriptions and participant fees at meetings and seminars. There are 10 members of the Secretariat originating from seven countries, primarily working from one office in Washington, DC. Documents are published in English, French, and Spanish, monthly summaries are available in Russian, and annual summaries are available in both Arabic and Russian.
