Washington, DC — World cotton production in the 2026/27 season is projected at 25.9 million tonnes, exceeding global consumption of 25.2 million tonnes, according to the May 2026 issue of Cotton This Month. That means both production and consumption are expected to remain close to current season levels, while global cotton trade is projected to decline by 2.7% to approximately 9.6-9.7 million tonnes.
Some key market drivers are having an impact:
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt fertilizer supply chains, increasing input costs for producers
- Severe drought in the United States is affecting most cotton-growing areas, raising the likelihood of abandonment
- Rising prices for synthetic fibers may improve cotton’s competitiveness
Favorable conditions in China are expected to support strong yields
Production, Consumption, and Trade
China is expected to remain the world’s largest producer (nearly 7 million tonnes) and the leading consumer (accounting for 32% of global use).
Global exports will continue to be led by Brazil, followed by the United States and Australia. On the import side, Bangladesh is projected to remain the world’s largest importer at 1.8 million tonnes, followed by China, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Türkiye.
World cotton ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to rise by 4% to 17.9 million tonnes, reflecting higher production and increased imports, particularly in China.
